Bellevue, Nebraska 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

015
FXUS63 KOAX 191043
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
543 AM CDT Sat Jul 19 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Another round of storms (20-30% chance) may develop Saturday afternoon
  and evening, with chances peaking early Sunday morning (30-
  50%). Some of these storms could be strong to severe. Flood
  potential will also increase.

- Active pattern continues into next week with some low end
  chances for evening and nighttime storms (15-30%).

- Dangerous heat will be possible next week with heat indices up
  to 100-110.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 201 AM CDT Sat Jul 19 2025

Today through Sunday...

Storms struggled to develop Friday night, with the cap holding over
northeast Nebraska through much of the evening. Eventually, a few
discrete cells formed near the cold front in north central Nebraska
and tracked east/southeast. Overnight, most of these storms
weakened as they moved across the forecast area.

A few showers and storms may linger into Saturday morning, with a
brief break in convection before another shortwave moves in Saturday
afternoon/evening. Models indicate computed CAPE up to 1000-2000
J/kg re-establishing across the region, along with 30-50 kts of bulk
shear. Similar to yesterday, consensus remains low amongst the
various solutions as to exactly how and if storms will impact the
forecast area Saturday evening and overnight. Overall, what happens
tonight will depend on where boundaries linger from Friday night`s
convection. The most likely scenario at the moment appears to be
isolated cells developing in west/central Nebraska, and
congealing into an MCS as they move east/southeast overnight.
Severe storms will once again be possible, given the stronger
shear in place, however instability will likely be diminishing
by the time storms get to our forecast area.

Another "up in the air" forecast is in store for Sunday with models
maintaining a poor consensus on potential solutions. SPC has much of
the region included in a Marginal Risk, with strong to severe storms
developing somewhere in the Central Plains, as instability builds
back into the region. Shear will once again be marginal at 20-40
kts, lowering the potential for sustained well-organized convection.
In addition to at least a Marginal threat for severe storms, PWATs
up to 2" and the possibility of multiple rounds of heavy rain over
the same areas could eventually lead to increased flooding concerns.

Outside of storms, temperatures are forecast to warm back into the
 80s and low 90s today and Sunday.

Monday and Beyond...

A ridge begins to build over the southern CONUS by early next week,
which will bring hot and humid conditions to the region. Highs in
the mid 80s to low 90s on Sunday will push into the low to mid 90s
across the forecast area Monday through Friday. Those temperatures
combined with dew points in the 70s will make it feel like 100-110
at times.  Heat headlines appear likely during this timeframe, so
those with any outdoor plans for next week should continue to pay
attention to the forecast should any be issued and prepare to take
necessary precautions to avoid heat related illnesses.

Some relief from the heat will come in the form of several
shortwaves traversing the upper ridge. These will bring 15-30
percent PoPs daily, through the remainder of the forecast period.
Once again, should these consecutive rounds of showers and storms
fall over the same areas, we could see increased potential for
localized flooding through the coming week.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 540 AM CDT Sat Jul 19 2025

Primarily VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the period.
Southerly winds will become easterly today, at around 5-10 kts.
Isolated showers and thunderstorms will be possible throughout the
day, with chances ranging from 15-20%. A better chance for storms
(30-50%) will arrive this evening and overnight. While confidence
still remains too low to mention in the TAF at this time, the best
chance for storms currently looks to be from 06Z-12Z. MVFR to IFR
ceilings may be associated with this thunderstorm complex,
especially across northeast Nebraska.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...KG
AVIATION...KG